Thursday, May 15, 2014

Why I think the Beats Deal is Bad for Apple

Apple (AAPL) is a company that always prides itself on its unique self-developed design. Now compare this to the recent deal to acquire Beats for $3.2 billion, allowing Dr. Dre to proclaim that he is the first billionaire in hip hop (he better hope he didn't jinx himself considering the deal hasn't actually been finalized yet) and some are left questioning; is this the right move?

So why don't we take a look at Apple's past acquisitions since 2001:
YearCompanyBusinessValue (USD)Derived Products
2001Bluefish LabsProductivity softwareiWork
2001bluebuzzInternet service provider
2001Spruce TechnologiesGraphics softwareUS$14,900,000DVD Studio Pro
2001PowerSchoolOnline info systems servicesUS$66,100,000PowerSchool
2002Nothing RealSpecial effects softwareUS$15,000,000Shake
2002ZayanteFireWire chips and softwareUS$13,000,000FireWire
2002Silicon Grail Corp-ChaliceDigital effects softwareUS$20,000,000Final Cut Pro
2002Propel SoftwareSoftware-
2002Prismo GraphicsSpecial-effects titling software for film and videoUS$20,000,000LiveType (Final Cut Studio)
2002EmagicMusic production softwareUS$30,000,000Logic Pro, GarageBand
2005SchemasoftSoftwareiWork
2005FingerWorksGesture recognition companyiOS
2006Silicon ColorSoftwareColor (Final Cut Studio)
2006ProximitySoftwareFinal Cut Server
2008P.A. SemiSemiconductorsUS$278,000,000Apple SOC
2009PlacebaseMapsMaps
2009Lala.comMusic streamingUS$17,000,000iCloud, iTunes Match
2010Quattro WirelessMobile advertisingUS$275,000,000iAd
2010IntrinsitySemiconductorsUS$121,000,000Apple SOC
2010SiriVoice Control SoftwareSiri
2010Poly9Web-based mappingMaps
2010Polar RoseFace-RecognitionUS$29,000,000iOS
2010IMSenseHigh Dynamic Range PhotographyiOS
2011C3 Technologies3D MappingUS$267,000,000Maps
2011AnobitFlash MemoryUS$390,000,000iPod, iPhone, iPad
2012ChompApp search engineUS$50,000,000App Store
2012RedmaticaAudioLogic Pro
2012AuthenTecPC and Mobile security productsUS$356,000,000Touch ID
2012ParticleHTML5 web app firmiCloud, iAd
2013Novauris TechnologiesSpeech recognitionSiri
2013WiFiSlamIndoor locationUS$20,000,000Maps
2013LocationaryMapsMaps
2013HopStop.comMapsMaps
2013Passif SemiconductorSemiconductors
2013MatchaMedia discovery app
2013EmbarkMapsMaps
2013AlgoTrimData Compression
2013CuePersonal assistantUS$50,000,000
2013PrimeSenseSemiconductorsUS$345,000,000
2013TopsyAnalyticsUS$200,000,000
2013BroadMapMapsMaps
2013Catch.comSoftware
2014SnappyLabsPhotography SoftwareCamera
2014BurstlySoftwareApp Testing and Distribution
2014LuxVue TechnologymicroLED Displays

From the data available to us on this chart, since 2001 the highest amount Apple has ever spent on an acquisition was $390 million. However, this isn't even the most concerning factor. Pay close attention to the 'Derived Products' column. All of the acquisitions are made on products that are supplements to Apple's hardware. For example, Apple now uses the semiconductors purchased from PA Semi back in 2008 in its iPods and iPhones.

In this sense, Apple has never bought a pre-established brand for a physical product. It has purchased brands for software but these are simply to acquire their functions as they can be easily redesigned to give it the 'Apple look'. This is because Apple does better when they design the products themselves. How do they plan on incorporating Beats as an Apple brand?

Now some might argue that Tim Cook's logic is derived from this slide:
Projected Headphone Market Share

So, Tim Cook is thinking that if he buys Beats he can solidify Apple's position as the primary choice for headphone purchases. One problem is that there is a decreasing trend in growth for Beats' planned purchases: Spring 2013 @ 1.8% growth, Fall 2013 @ 0.7% growth, and Spring 2014 projected @ 0.4% growth.

Now let's consider why this planned purchased growth might be slowing. The Beats brand is directly targeted at those born in the late 80s to late 90s (those that are 14 to 25 years old). The issue with this is that this generation is rapidly moving away from the hip hop and "Dr. Dre" scene. This combined with the fact that the general opinion of 'audiophiles' being that Beats offers sub-par quality for too high of a price is exactly why I don't think Beats is a great purchase for Apple.

Of course, it's hard to argue with the fact that by purchasing Beats, Apple is expected to own over 70% of planned purchases for Spring 2014 but if I was dropping $3.2 billion I would want a guarantee that it's going to payoff for years into the future.

So there must be more to it than this simple graph indicates. It's been rumored that Apple is also making the purchase to take advantage of Beats' new music streaming service. My answer to this is that it's completely unnecessary to drop $3.2 billion. If Apple took $500 million of this money, along with its army of developers, I'm sure it could develop a music streaming service that blows whatever Beats has out of the water.

To me, purchasing Beats looks more like a way out of the recent accusations of Apple holding too much cash as opposed to a smart business decision. Shareholders are wanting Apple to spend some of their $130 billion held in offshore accounts. If this is truly Apple's solution to that issue, they have a steep road ahead.

Disclaimer: I do not own shares of Apple or a pair of Beats headphones ;)

No comments:

Post a Comment